HSBC: Buhari’s Second Term Poses Risk to Economic Devt.
In its own report, put together by its Global Research Unit, entitled, ‘Nigeria, Papering over the Cracks,’ HSBC said Nigeria’s current economic struggles look set to continue if Buhari wins a second term in office.
According to the financial institution, although the president’s “approval ratings sit near all time lows,” a development, it said, “largely reflects the impact of Nigeria’s painful recession in 2016-17 and the sustained economic hardship that has accompanied his presidency, including rapidly rising joblessness, and poverty,” the president will once again lead the APC into the 2019 elections.
It, however, stated, “A second term for Mr. Buhari raises the risk of limited economic progress and further fiscal deterioration, prolonging the stagnation of his first term, particularly if there is no move towards completing reform of the exchange rate system or fiscal adjustments that diversify government revenues away from oil.”
The multinational banking group, which is Europe’s largest by total assets, noted that while higher oil prices have brightened Nigeria’s macro outlook, boosting export earnings, improving the supply of foreign exchange, and supporting naira stability, the Buhari administration was yet to address the economy’s structural shortcomings.
It said, “Economic growth remains sluggish and reliant on the rebound in oil output while the non-oil economy, which accounts for about 90 per cent of GDP, continues to languish with many service sectors still mired in contraction.”
“Joblessness continues to rise, up almost three-fold in three years to 19 per cent in Q3 2017, pushing the number in poverty to 87 million.” “Meanwhile, current account improvements may have pivoted on higher oil prices, but they also derive from on-going import restrictions and limited FX access for many sectors of the economy.”
Perhaps looking to make The Economist forecast real, the BoT of the PDP yesterday revealed that it had set up a 12-member committee to discuss with the party’s 13 presidential aspirants, with the view to picking one of them as consensus candidate.
Those in the race for the presidential ticket of the PDP are, former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; Sokoto State Governor, Mr. Aminu Tambuwal; Gombe State Governor, Dr. Ibrahim Dankwambo; President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki; former Governor of Jigawa State, Alhaji Sule Lamido; former Governor of Kaduna State, Senator Ahmed Makarfi; and former Minister of Special Duties and Inter-governmental Affairs, Alhaji Tanimu Turaki (SAN).
Others are: former President of the Senate, Senator David Mark; former Governor of Kano State, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso; former Governor of Sokoto State, Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa; former Plateau State Governor, Senator Jonah Jang; Mr. Stanley Osifo and Dr. Baba Datti Ahmed.
The BoT had last week met in Abuja where they said they were working to ensure that they reduce the increasing number of presidential aspirants, but noted that they would not force any aspirant to step down.
However, the Chairman of the BoT, Senator Walid Jibrin, said that the committee would impress it on the aspirants, the dangers inherent in having such a large number of them in the race.
He stressed that the committee would not compel any of the aspirants to withdraw from the race, but rather they would be persuaded to put the interest of the party above their personal interests and ambitions.
Jibrin, who admitted that the present number of aspirants was complex, noted that there were fears that there could be disagreement among the contestants that could lead to major divisions after the primaries.
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